Forecast calls for Tesla market share to drop while VW picks up
VW has said it plans to sell 26m EVs by 2030
An EV analyst forecasts that Volkswagen Group will quickly pass Tesla to become the world’s largest maker of EVs, with the forecast calling for VW’s market share to climb and Tesla’s to cut in half over the next four years.
“Tesla’s been dominant as a brand in the past five years but clearly that can’t last,” Pete Kelly, managing director of analyst firm LMC told Automotive News Europe. Kelly cited the onslaught of new electrics coming from all of the Volkswagen Group’s brands, including Audi, Skoda, Seat, and Porsche, as well as Toyota’s quick turn into launching EVs this year.
VW’s first modern dedicated EV was the ID 3 that is built in a new platform and launched late last year. In just a few months it sold more than 54,000 copies in Europe, trailing only the Renault Zoe (close to 100,000 sales) and the Tesla Model 3 (more than 85,000).
While Tesla had long been the dominant seller of EVs, they were also largely the only seller of mainstream EVs in many markets. Now that other automakers have brought their electric guns to bear on the segment, LMC said that it expects Tesla’s global share to drop from 20 percent of EVs in 2020 to 10 percent by 2025, while VW Groups is expected to grow to more than 15 percent.
Volkswagen has said it expects to sell 26 million EVs worldwide by 2030, and has just launched the ID 4 crossover that’s set to go on sale worldwide. On the other hand, many companies and analysts have bet against Tesla so far, but the automaker and founder Elon Musk have continued to stay at the forefront of electrics.