According to Rivian’s CEO, the chip shortage will be nothing compared to the battery problem.
Stringent emission rules and heightened demand will put enormous strain on battery production.
This will put a severe dent in many governments’ future plans. Numerous countries have announced that they plan to ban the sale of new vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine by 2035. However, if there are no batteries to power EVs, there won’t be any EVs to buy.
Rivian CEO R.J. Scaringe says that the current supply chain issues we are experiencing, be it for microchips or other parts, are but a miniature sample of what’s to come according to Autoblog. The compacted timelines for the introduction and launch of new EVs from all automakers, tougher emission rules, and amplified demand will create a perfect storm that will show massive cracks in battery production. Essentially, the formation of the supply chain will need about 13 years before it meets volume requirements.
Steve Levine (the senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, and professor at Georgetown University) put this in numbers on Twitter.
World nickel and lithium production will be enough for 3.8 million EVs this year—fewer than half the 7.7m that automakers say they want to make. By 2030, metals will be enough for 15.6m EVs. But stated EV production is over 40m. 1/2 The Electric. https://t.co/MuwDEra1c0
— Steve LeVine (@stevelevine) April 24, 2022
Basically, no matter how bad countries want to cancel the ICE, they’ll still be very necessary if automakers are to continue to sell new vehicles and employ hundreds of thousands of people directly and indirectly.