Report : Electric Vehicles Forecasted to Dominate by 2030

The decline of the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) heralds a new era dominated by the exponential growth of electric vehicles.

• The exponential growth observed in renewable energy technologies is challenging the traditional, orthodox view that energy progression is linear.

• The sales of EVs are following an S-curve growth pattern, and regions such as Northern Europe and China are at the forefront of this trend.

• Due to economic shifts and the continuous reduction in battery costs, EVs are becoming more cost-competitive, and it’s anticipated that they will dominate global car sales by 2030.

The global automotive landscape is undergoing a transformative shift, with electric vehicles (EVs) steadily eclipsing their Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) counterparts. This change is underpinned by the findings presented in the “X-change: Cars” report.

This detailed study, a collaborative effort that includes contributions from a team of experts, emphasizes the accelerating pace of renewable energy adoption. Contrary to linear projections, the data reveals an exponential trajectory, particularly evident in the automotive sector. The traditional ICE vehicle, once a mainstay, is gradually giving way to its electric counterpart.

EVs are not just a fleeting trend; their growth pattern, represented by the S-curve, indicates robust and sustained adoption. Initial milestones, such as capturing 10% of new car sales, were achieved in just six years in pioneering regions like Northern Europe and China. The momentum doesn’t stop there. Predictions suggest that these figures could leap to 80% in another six years in these regions.

Driving this transformative shift is a combination of policy-driven initiatives and pure economics. As advancements in battery technology continue, the associated costs decline. This evolution has made EVs more financially appealing, and by the end of this decade, they’re expected to achieve price parity across all primary car markets. This economic viability is poised to further accelerate EV adoption, extending its reach to various global regions and transport niches.

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By 2030, the automotive world could look drastically different. If current growth trends persist, EVs might command between 62% and 86% of global car sales. Certain markets, like China, might see even more pronounced dominance, potentially exceeding a 90% EV market share.

While these figures might seem optimistic, they’re supported by tangible market shifts. For instance, the demand for oil, traditionally linked to ICE vehicles, peaked in 2019. With the ascendancy of EVs, this demand is bounded for a significant decline, reiterating the waning influence of ICE in the automotive world.