Battery shortages are to be expected.
Demand will continue to outstrip availability forcing buyers into ICE vehicles.
Globally, only a few million EVs were sold last year and that proved to be a daunting task. Moving forward, the goal is to deliver tens of millions of new EVs annually however this will inevitably cause major headaches for supply chains, production lines, and buyers.
The current global microchip shortage has proven to be a nearly insurmountable obstacle for automakers. The war in Ukraine is also creating plenty of problems for the industry. And according to people in the know, these issues are just the begging.
Rivian Automotive Inc. CEO RJ Scaringe warns that shortages in the near future will stem from the mining of raw materials such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel, to processing them, to building the battery cells themselves. In his opinion, battery production will present an enormous challenge.
“Put very simply, all the world’s cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years,” Mr. Scaringe said last week as reported by the Wall Street Journal. “Meaning, 90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist,” he added.
BMW’s CEO, Oliver Zipse, is of a similar opinion. He warns that not only will the EV push put the industry at the mercy of a few countries for materials, but that consumers will inevitably be forced to buy an ICE in the face of a near inexistent EV offering.
He advocates against an all-out ban on ICEs. He said, as reported by PaulTan: “If someone cannot buy an EV for some reason but needs a car, would you rather propose he continues to drive his old car forever? If you are not selling combustion engines anymore, someone else will.”