Exxon’s Neil Chapman warns oil inventories hit record lows in 2 to 3 weeks.
He projects dated Brent spiking to US$150 to $160 per barrel.
Estimated Canadian impact: roughly $2.35 to $2.50 a litre, unofficial.
ExxonMobil told investors Thursday that global oil inventories will fall to record lows within two to three weeks, a drawdown the company expects to force crude prices sharply higher. For Canadian drivers already paying close to $1.90 a litre, the warning points to a second leg up at the pumps this summer.
Speaking at a Bernstein investor conference in New York on May 28, Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman said commercial stockpiles of crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have been steadily depleted since the Strait of Hormuz closed. Government reserve releases have only partly offset the loss.
His remarks were reported by CNBC, and that buffer, he said, is nearly gone.
What Chapman Actually Said
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” Chapman told the conference, in comments reported by CNBC. “I mean really, really low levels.” He put the timeline at two to three weeks before stockpiles bottom out, adding that once they do, “you’ll see price shoot up.”
Chapman said market models point to physical Brent cargoes reaching $150 to $160 per barrel at that point, up from the roughly $90 to $110 range crude has held for the past six weeks.
Brent is the international benchmark for crude oil, the reference price most of the world’s supply trades against. When it rises, the gasoline refined from that oil tends to follow.
He was candid that the spike would be self-limiting: “When the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance.” In plain terms, prices climb until drivers and businesses stop buying.
The International Energy Agency, also cited by CNBC, has called the Hormuz closure the largest oil supply disruption in history, costing the market more than a billion barrels so far.
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From $94 Brent to Your Pump
Brent closed under US$94 a barrel on May 28 and slipped near US$92.56 the following day, with the market pricing in a possible 60-day U.S.-Iran pause that would reopen Hormuz.
Chapman’s argument is that the current calm is borrowed. The $90-to-$110 window has been sustained by burning through inventories, a strategy he said “can’t last forever.”
Crude is only one input in a litre of gasoline, alongside federal and provincial taxes, refining margins and distribution. As a common analyst rule of thumb, every US$1 move in Brent translates to roughly 0.7 to 0.9 cents a litre at Canadian pumps.
On that basis, a jump from roughly US$94 to US$160 would add an estimated 45 to 55 cents a litre, pushing a $1.90 national average toward the $2.35 to $2.50 range.
That figure is an approximate and unofficial estimate, not a forecast. It assumes refining margins hold steady; in past supply crunches they have widened, which would push the number higher.
The $2 mark already has a credible Canadian backer. EN-PRO chief petroleum analyst Roger McKnight told CTV News earlier this month that $2 a litre is no longer a possibility but a probability at this stage.
Canada’s Current Pump Reality
The national average sat at about 192.8 cents a litre for the week ending May 12, according to Natural Resources Canada. That holds even with the federal fuel excise tax holiday cutting 10 cents a litre on gasoline through September 7.
The provincial spread is wide. Yukon led at $2.10 a litre on May 26, followed by Newfoundland and Labrador at $2.07, while Alberta drivers paid the least at $1.73.
OEMs Picked the Wrong Year to Quit
Honda 0 Prototypes | Photo: HondaThis lands at an awkward moment for an industry that spent the past year retreating from electric vehicles. Statistics Canada data showed battery-electric registrations fell 43.1% in 2025 while hybrids rose 36.1%.
Several automakers cancelled North American EV programmes on the read that the “EV winter” was permanent. A sustained pump-price shock changes that calculus, because demand pulled in by fuel costs has historically proven stickier than demand pushed by mandates. The affordable electric options to absorb it, however, are thinner than they have been in years.
The Counter-Current
The case against an imminent spike is the ceasefire itself. Brent has fallen almost 19% in May, its worst month since the pandemic, on hopes for a U.S.-Iran settlement.
Chapman’s point is that even a deal does not instantly refill drained reserves. As he put it, “once you get to the minimum inventory levels and all-time low inventory levels, there’s only one way to go.”
That leaves two open questions. For drivers: if regular pushes toward $2.50 a litre this summer, is that the number that finally converts you to an EV or hybrid? And for the automakers that spent the past year cancelling electric models, was 2025 the wrong year to quit, and will they come to regret it?
