As the prices of both new and used vehicles continue to climb, many drivers are trying to make their current vehicles last as long as possible. Unfortunately, not all vehicles are created equal in this regard, with some having a much better chance of reaching high mileage than others.
An iSeeCars study ranks automakers based on the probability of their vehicles reaching 400,000 kilometers (250,000 miles). To create this ranking, the American automotive research company recorded the odometer readings of 174 million vehicles on an annual basis. They then inputted this data into a proprietary model that determines the likelihood of each vehicle reaching various mileage milestones. These probabilities were then assigned to the brand in proportion to each model’s popularity on American roads.
While this does not account for variables like differences in owner types and vehicle usage, it offers a solid idea of what to expect from each brand regarding durability.
True to their reputation, Japanese brands dominate the top of the segment. Toyota, Lexus, Honda, and Acura are the only brands whose vehicles have a better chance of reaching 400,000 km than the industry average, which sits at 4.8%.
Luxury cars are generally less likely to hit high mileage (with an average of 3.2%), but iSeeCars indicates this is because upscale vehicle owners typically drive shorter distances, rather than due to less reliable powertrains.
It is also worth noting before we begin that the study does not specify the age of the vehicles taken into account. However, since the average annual mileage driven in the United States is around 20,000 km, vehicles currently at 400,000 km are predominantly models from the 2000 to 2010 model years.
Here is the ranking of the 10 brands (12, actually) whose vehicles have the highest chance of reaching 400,000 km:
Ford
Ford squeaks into the ranking with a 3.1% probability of reaching 400,000 km, making it the tenth most durable brand on the market. The high proportion of pickup trucks and commercial owners likely plays a significant role in this performance. On the flip side, several of the manufacturer’s models suffer from more fragile powertrains and rust issues, which likely prevents it from reaching a higher rank. Still, tenth place is nothing to scoff at, considering the full list includes 32 brands.
Lincoln
Curiously, Lincoln ranks better than Ford, with a 3.4% probability of reaching 400,000 km. While Lincoln vehicles are practically all derived from Ford products, and luxury brands generally fare worse due to lower annual mileages, this difference could be explained by more conscientious owners who follow the manufacturer’s maintenance recommendations. Lincoln also lacks the most affordable models offered by Ford, which might be less durable than its large SUVs.
RAM
While brands under the Chrysler umbrella (now Stellantis) generally do not have a great reputation for reliability, RAM stands as the exception to the rule, with a 3.5% probability of reaching 400,000 km. This can be partly explained by the use of time-tested mechanical elements—such as Cummins diesel engines, the 5.7L Hemi V8, and the 3.6L Pentastar V6, which are generally reliable despite a few known flaws—as well as the buyer profile for pickup trucks. Indeed, truck owners tend to keep their vehicles longer than average because they serve as work tools, which tends to promote high mileage.
Mazda
Mazda is the only Japanese brand to make the top 10 of this ranking without achieving durability above the industry average. The small manufacturer holds its own rather well, with a 3.6% probability of reaching 400,000 km, despite having more limited resources than its competitors. While the exact reasons are unknown, a combination of powertrains that have remained mostly unchanged for nearly 10 years and notable improvements in rust protection may offset certain less reliable models or those generally driven fewer annual miles, such as the MX-5 convertible.
Cadillac and Chevrolet
Cadillac and Chevrolet share sixth place thanks to a 4.5% probability of reaching 400,000 km. The two General Motors brands share certain platforms and mechanical bits—notably the V8 engines installed in Cadillac Escalades and Chevrolet pickup trucks—but several differences remain.
In theory, Cadillac is at a disadvantage because it belongs to the luxury category, which is generally less likely to accumulate high mileage. This points the finger at certain Chevrolet models, which appear less durable than the rest. Nevertheless, sixth place in the ranking is a quite strong performance for these two American brands.
GMC and Tesla
The fifth spot features another tie, with GMC and Tesla both earning a 4.6% probability of reaching 400,000 km. Although GMC shares most of its models with Chevrolet, it focuses on pickup trucks, which generally prove to be more durable than smaller models.
Tesla presents an interesting case, as it is the only brand selling exclusively electric vehicles to appear on the list. This is certainly explained by the age of the brand, whose first mainstream models are now nearly 15 years old, but also by genuine durability, which has been demonstrated by several early Model S cars now showing impressive odometer readings.
Acura
Acura is the first brand to surpass the industry average for durability, with a 7.2% probability of reaching 400,000 km. This score, significantly higher than that of other brands, clearly demonstrates that Acura vehicles are more durable than average, but it may also reflect the brand’s reputation. Like all the Japanese brands at the top of the ranking, Acura is renowned for offering reliable and durable vehicles, which naturally attracts drivers who cover long distances annually.
Honda
Unsurprisingly, Honda ranks just above Acura, with a 10.8% probability of reaching 400,000 km. This difference between the two brands is likely explained by the longer average distances driven by owners of mainstream vehicles. While Honda vehicles are recognized for their high reliability, a few mechanical issues on certain models may explain why it trails Toyota in terms of durability. Nonetheless, Honda owners are 2.3 times more likely to reach high mileage than the industry average.
Lexus
Lexus’s performance, capturing second place with a 12.8% probability of reaching 400,000 km, can also be explained in various ways. It is indisputable that Lexus produces highly reliable and durable vehicles, which, as with Acura and Honda, attracts buyers looking to drive long distances. Lexus owners are also likely to maintain their vehicles well, precisely with the goal of making them last as long as possible.
Toyota
Toyota ranks first, with an impressive 17.8% probability of reaching 400,000 km. Even more so than the other brands in this ranking, Toyota attracts buyers searching for durable vehicles, notably due to the bulletproof reputation of its products. Toyota’s recipe for offering above-average reliability usually consists of refining existing powertrains and technologies rather than replacing them with brand-new components at every generation change. iSeeCars also highlights that, in addition to its highly durable trucks and SUVs, Toyota features hybrid models capable of reaching high mileage, including the Prius and the Camry.
Source: iSeeCars
