A report forecasts hybrid car sales to triple and account for 24% of US new car sales by 2028, while EV sales face challenges.
Hybrid car sales are projected to triple and capture 24% of US new car sales by 2028.
EV sales face obstacles and are estimated to reach 9% market share in 2023 and 37% by 2028.
A hybrid resurgence is likely, with Toyota, Ford, and Stellantis leading the trend.
The auto industry’s journey towards electrification has often been associated with electric vehicles, but their uptake has been slower than anticipated. As EV adoption faces obstacles and a possible delay in gaining momentum, hybrids are poised to emerge as a significant player, potentially constituting a quarter of the US market share by the decade’s end.
S&P Global Mobility data cited by Reuters suggests that hybrid sales are projected to more than triple over the next five years, making up approximately 24% of new car sales in the US by 2028. However, some industry players are even more optimistic; Ford CEO Jim Farley reportedly forecasts a quadrupling of hybrid sales during the same period, as indicated in a Q2 earnings call. By comparison, hybrids are expected to capture just 7% of the market in 2023.
In contrast, EVs are predicted to reach 9% market share in 2023 and increase to 37% by 2028. Nonetheless, EV sales have largely relied on tax incentive programs that have produced less impactful CO2 emissions reductions than expected. As these incentives become less accessible and demand wanes, the growth trajectory of EVs could be compromised.
The potential for a hybrid renaissance in the US market is evident, with hundreds of thousands of hybrid vehicles projected to be produced and sold throughout the remainder of the 2020s. Key players such as Toyota, Ford, and Stellantis are expected to dominate, with models like the plug-in hybrid Jeep Wrangler and Chrysler Pacifica gaining popularity. Notably, hybrids are experiencing quicker turnover on dealership lots, unlike EVs which have seen longer sales cycles.
The growth potential extends to both personal and fleet vehicle markets, as many consumers seek to cut fuel costs without committing to full EV adoption. Additionally, anticipated battery shortages could hinder long-term EV adoption, further positioning hybrids to address demand where EVs may fall short.