Tesla releases analyst-based forecast showing 8% year-over-year decline in 2025 vehicle deliveries.
Energy storage projections increase steadily from 45.9 GWh in 2025 to 141.8 GWh in 2029.
Academic study links Tesla’s U.S. sales drop to Elon Musk’s political activity since October 2022.
Tesla has publicly released sales forecasts compiled from major financial institutions, projecting an 8% drop in global vehicle deliveries in 2025 compared with the previous year. This is the first time the company has made such estimates available on its official website.
The published consensus estimates forecast 1,640,752 vehicle deliveries in 2025, down from the roughly 1.78 million units delivered in 2024. Tesla’s estimate for Q4 2024 stands at 422,850 vehicles, falling short of Bloomberg’s forecast of 440,907 units.
Tesla Faces Global Sales Slump as Competition Intensifies in Key Markets
Forecasts were sourced from analysts at more than a dozen firms, including Daiwa, Wedbush, RBC, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Goldman Sachs. Tesla stated it does not endorse the information or conclusions in the estimates.
The company typically shares such data selectively with investors and analysts, never publicly. Bloomberg noted that this public release represents a shift from past practice. They also reported that Tesla’s internal consensus estimates are lower than its own. The automaker is on track for its second consecutive annual drop in vehicle deliveries, with 2025 marking a further decrease after a decline in 2024.
Despite the near-term decline, long-range projections suggest a gradual recovery. Analysts forecast Tesla will deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026, 2.01 million in 2027, 2.35 million in 2028, and over 3 million by 2029.
Tesla also included energy storage deployment forecasts, projecting 45.9 GWh in 2025, increasing to 141.8 GWh by 2029.
A study released in October by researchers at Yale University linked falling U.S. and Canadian Tesla sales to political statements made by CEO Elon Musk. Using monthly county-level vehicle registration data, the researchers found that sales between October 2022 and April 2025 could have been 67–83% higher in the absence of Musk’s partisan activity. They also found that sales of competitors’ EV and hybrid vehicles increased by 17–22% during the same period.
The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, concludes that CEO political behaviour can materially affect company performance, particularly when unconnected to core business operations.
Source: cleantechnica
