Volkswagen is said to decide on the future of the Golf in the next 12 months
Rising development costs of combustion-powered vehicles and the European ban on combustion engines are to blame
Other small gasoline-powered VW and Audi models will be going away once their current cycle is done
The future of the Volkswagen Golf is undetermined due to a number of factors that make it less and less profitable to develop and sell small vehicles powered by gasoline or diesel engines.
According to Volkswagen, the current generation of the Golf could be the last one if the company’s executives don’t decide to go ahead with a 9th generation model in the next 12 months.
Two reasons can explain why the automaker might not want to develop a new Golf. First of which is the rising costs needed to develop vehicles that are compliant with the more stringent Euro 7 pollution standards that will be adopted by the European Union shortly.
These higher costs are more difficult to justify on small vehicles since their profit margin is smaller and thus it takes many more sales to break even on the investment than with larger, more profitable vehicles.
This is why many of the smaller models sold in Europe by the Volkswagen Group are likely to be discontinued in the coming years, such as the Volkswagen Polo, the Audi A1, and the Q2.
Another reason that could explain the possible demise of the Golf is due to timing. Indeed, Europe announced a ban on combustion engines that will become effective in 2035, which means that the Golf only has about 12 years to go anyway.
This is a problem since the current model was introduced in 2019 and it is due for a refresh in 2023 or 2024. Following usual Volkswagen product cycles, this means that the potential 9th generation of the Golf should be introduced in 2027, which would only leave it 5 to 6 years on the market before the ban, thus not a complete cycle.
In addition, it is expected that a number of European countries will decide to ban sales of new vehicles powered by combustion engines earlier than the 2035 deadline, which would contribute to even lower sales for the Golf in its latter years.
Volkswagen has yet to say if the Golf will receive an electric successor after the gasoline-powered version is phased out, but considering the brand’s naming strategy regarding its EVs, this would most likely mean the end for the long-running nameplate anyway.
