31.1 million electric vehicle prediction 10 million more than 2019’s prediction
Four in Five expected to be fully electric
A new market report by consulting firm Deloitte predicts a sea change in new vehicle buyer sentiment that could see a third of all new sales be PHEV or electric vehicles by the end of the decade. A massive shift that would see vehicles with a plug to top 31 million sales by 2030, a full 10 million more than they predicted just a year ago.
While COVID-19 spread has put a large dent in 2020 overall vehicle sales, one that the Deloitte study (via Autocar) says won’t be likely punched out again until 2024, it expects EV sales to stray from the curve.
2.5 million electrified (here meaning full EV or PHEV) sales worldwide in 2020 is the prediction, which is not a large increase over the 2.2 million sold last year but would represent a large climb in market share over the 2.5 percent of last year.
Deloitte expects annual growth of electrified sales to compound at 29 percent, meaning topping 11.2 million per year in 2025 and then 31.1 by 2030. And while some of those will be PHEV, meaning combustion-powered engines will still be involved, the research suggests 81 percent of that 2030 figure will be fully electric.
Driving the growth is changing consumer sentiment and disappearing barriers to adoption, the study found. “The price premium attached to many electric vehicles restricted some early adopters but, as the cost of EVs have converged with petrol and diesel equivalents, the pool of prospective buyers is set to increase. A wider range of new electric vehicles, combined with a growing secondhand market, means EVs are becoming a more viable option for many,” said Deloitte head of EVs Jamie Hamilton, noting that charging infrastructure would continue to be an important consideration.
More factors driving EV adoption growth include regulations and incentives pushing the vehicles, including emissions targets, as well as the availability of more models that reach more market segments.