Current interest and growth point at a greater take rate than previously thought.
The thinking, up until now, was this sales ratio would be attained only in 2030.
Let’s commence by specifying that electrified vehicles include hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles. The growing selection of electrified models has helped increase their global market share by 8% in 2019 to 12% in 2020.
2021 is already on track to be another good year for electrified vehicles and the trend should continue. Most automakers are lining up many new EVs for the next year or two, all of which show great promise. This is in part the reasoning behind Boston Consulting Group’s belief that electrified vehicles will account for 50% of all new sales as early as 2026, and not 2030 as previously expected. The leading markets behind this transition will be China and the EU.
What’s more, full EVs may become the dominant powertrain right around 2035. Factors behind these predictions include rapidly declining battery costs, various government incentives as well as stricter emission regulations.
According to the report, there will be three phases to the transition to full EVs starting with “Incentive and Early Adopter-Driven Electrification.” This will be followed by “Ownership Cost-Driven Electrification” which will involve ever-cheaper batteries and incentives for PHEVs drying up. Finally, “Supply-Driven Electrification” will take over as, by 2035, many OEMs will have phased out ICEs.